Business Insider reported on September 25, 2025, that economic experts have identified a conflict among three of Donald Trump's main priorities for the U.S. economy: boosting domestic manufacturing, restricting immigration, and controlling consumer prices. Economists from institutions including the Peterson Institute for International Economics and Goldman Sachs have stated that these goals are often at odds. The core conflict arises because the methods proposed to achieve these goals, such as imposing wide-ranging tariffs and carrying out mass deportations, would likely lead to higher inflation and slower economic growth.
- Manufacturing and Prices: Economists note that imposing tariffs to protect and encourage U.S. manufacturing directly raises the cost of imported goods and materials. This can lead to higher prices for consumers and retaliatory tariffs from other countries, which in turn hurt U.S. exporters and can slow the economy.
- Immigration and Labor: Reducing immigration and deporting undocumented workers would shrink the labor supply. This creates worker shortages, particularly in labor-intensive sectors like agriculture and construction, which drives up wages and, consequently, consumer prices. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has previously identified a shortfall in labor supply, partly due to reduced immigration, as a contributing factor to inflation.
- Economic Forecasts: An analysis by the Peterson Institute predicted that a combination of mass deportations and new tariffs could cause the inflation rate to jump significantly. Similarly, economists at Moody's and Nomura estimated that proposed tariffs alone would noticeably increase inflation in the year after implementation. The experts' analysis suggests these priorities are fundamentally contradictory.
Economists project that pursuing these policies simultaneously would likely result in increased inflation and reduced GDP growth, making it difficult to achieve all three objectives at once.
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